July 2015 Eurozone industrial production 0.6% vs 0.3% exp m/m

Details of the July 2015 Eurozone industrial production data report 14 September 2015

• Prior -0.4%. Revised to -0.3%
• 1.9% vs 0.6% exp y/y. Prior 1.2%. Revised to 1.5%

More good numbers from the area

Durable goods production jumps 1.3% following a 1.7% decline in June. Capital goods up 1.4% vs -1.5% prior. Steady progress being made in important areas and that will outweigh any further inflation weakness.

More from the order boards 14 September

Here's the latest on the other usual key pairs

USDCHF currently 0.9701 recovering from 0.9667 lows
Sellers  0.9725 0.9750 0.9785 0.9800 0.9830 0.9860 0.9900 
Buyers 0.9665-70 0.9640 0.9600 0.9580 0.9550

EURCHF currently 1.1000 still underpinned but running into offers again
Sellers 1.1030 1.1050 1.1080 1.1100
Buyers 1.0965 1.0930  1.0900 1.0880 1.08501.0830 1.0800

USDCAD currently 1.3234 treading water still

Sellers  1.3260 1.3280 1.3300 1.3330 1.13350 1.3380 1.3400 
Buyers 1.3220-25 1.3200 1.3180 1.3160 1.3130 1.3100 1.3080 1.3050

NZDUSD currently 0.6326 with supply into rallies still but demand into 0.6300
Sellers  0.6350 0.6380 0.6400 0.6420 0.6450 
Buyers  0.6300 0.6275 0.6260 0.6225 0.6200

Australia's Abbott says he will contest Liberal leadership tonight

Aussie politics heating up

• There will be a party room ballot tonight
• Expects to win leadership battle tonight
• Country should avoid a revolving door of government
• Prime ministership is not a prize or plaything
• Country is so much better than this

Italy CPI August final mm +0.2% vs +0.2% flash

Final inflation data now out. A little later than scheduled

• yy +0.2% as flash
• HICP mm +0.1% vs 0.0% flash
• yy +0.4% vs +0.5% flash

A mixed bag of data that isn't going to impact.. One for general filing

Eurozone industrial production out at 09.00 GMT

EURUSD 1.1339 EURGBP 0.7337 EURJPY 136.26

                                         Eurozone HICP yy

Forex technical analysis: EURUSD scoots higher

Moves back above the 200 hour MA.  

The EURUSD has made a break back to the upside and in the process scooted above the 200 hour moving average at the 1.1196 level (green line in the chart below).  

Stock futures in the US are now down (they were up earlier today) and the market in this pair  at least, seems to be taking clues from the wiggles and waggles  of late (don't hold me to that though as it can change).   Technically speaking though....the price moved above the 200 hour MA and that is bullish.

Note that earlier today, the low held right on the 100 hour MA (blue line in the chart above). Traders were leaning against the risk defining levels and those traders who bought there are getting more satisfaction from the break higher. 

The low to high trading range is about 73 pips (135 is the 22 day average).  The range for the week is only 124 pips. This is the lowest trading range this year.  So that implies either we continue to go no where or we extend the range between now and the close on Friday.  The bias is more bulllish

1. Hold the 100 hour MA
2. Above the midpoint of the weeks range  at 1.11824. 
3. Above the 200 hour MA at 1.1196

Look for support at the 1.1196 area. If it can hold, there should be some more probing to the upside. Who knows, maybe the 200 day MA above (at 1.1253 might be breached.

GBPUSD messing with us

Not a concern, unless it is....

The BOE decision was highlighted by the headline that the "global events haven't altered MPC central view". Then came the "But".  That sentence read, "but the greater downside risks to the global environment merit close monitoring for any impact on domestic economic activity"  

The price moved to the 1.5450 level (good call Mike) and the started to come back down.  Looking at the daily chart, there are two 38.2% retracements on the chart. 

1. The nearer term fall from the August high to the September low at 1.5409
2. The one from the move up from the April 2015 low to the June 2015 high. That too comes in at 1.5409 

The high price on Tuesday reached 1.5411.  The high price yesterday reached reached 1.5404.  We are back below that level now and if the price is to go back higher. That level should be eyed.  

What does the intraday price action show?  Looking at the 5 minute chart the spike higher has led to a tumble lower and a move back to where it all started. The 1.5404-11 area (highs from Tuesday and Wednesday and the dual 38.2% from the daily chart - yellow area in the chart below) was raced through on the way up and has also helped to provide resistance after the fall back down.   Note that the 38.2% of the days range is smack in the middle of that yellow area as well (see chart below).  So fair enough to say, that is a key area for trading going forward. Move above it and we go higher.   

ON the downside, the tumble lower stalled at the low right before the decision and against the 100 bar MA on the 5-minute chart. Is this the downside support to base?  Well lets see claims and see if the dollar side wants to take charge.  There has been some damage left from the lap to the upside and downside.  The market is taking a breathe.

US initial jobless claims 275k vs 275k exp

Latest US initial jobless claims data 10 September 2015

• Prior 282k
• Continued claims 2.260m vs 2.250m exp. Prior 2.257m. Revised to 2.259m
• 4 week avg 275.75k vs 275.5k prior. Revised to 275.25

The labour dept said it estimated Hawaii claims data but no other special factors affected claims

Initial jobless claims 4 week average

Canada new housing price index July mm +0.1% vs +0.2% exp

Also out a few moments ago

• +0.3% prev
• yy +1.3% as exp/prev

USDCAD still 1.3268 and supported by softer data

Dollar dumps as US import prices drop the most in 7 months

There's no imported inflation coming in to the US anytime soon

The data wheel spins and this time it stops on prices

Petroleum prices crapped out 14.2% in August from -5.9% in July and are down 49.6% against last year. Industrial supplies fell 7.2% vs -3.2% prior and are -32.3% y/y

The low price problem is seen in exports also with drops across the board

It's one snapshot of inflation from an international and domestic view and not one that says the Fed is going to get any help getting CPI back to target

The dollar has taken that as a dovish signal for the Fed and USDJPY has fallen to 120.60 from just under 121.00

We've ticked off the ECB and BOE on the major CB list and only have the BOJ to come before the FOMC

The S&P 500 Hasn't Seen This Many 'All or Nothing Days' Since 2011

Here's another sign of just how extreme recent stock market trading has been.

As Bespoke Investment Group points out, "all or nothing days," or trading sessions when the number of advancing stocks minus the number of declining stocks in the S&P 500 reaches more than 400 or less than negative 400, has seen a huge pickup in recent months. August's dramatic selloff was a case in point, while last Monday's market dip saw 499 of the 502 stocks in the S&P 500 fall in tandem.

Here's Bespoke:

Since the sell-off really began in earnest on 8/20/15, the S&P 500’s daily advance/decline reading has been above +400 or below –400 on eight trading days through Friday (as of 2PM Monday, the S&P 500’s A/D reading is currently above +400 again).

On a rolling 12-day basis, Bespoke says we haven't seen this many "all or nothing days" since the selloff of 2011 or the financial crisis of 2008.

To put that in perspective, prior to 8/20 there had only been 13 trading days in all of 2015 where the S&P 500 had an all or nothing day. We looked to see how common it has been to see eight ‘all or nothing days’ over a 12 trading day period, and found that since our daily breadth data begins in 1990, these events have been extremely rare. In fact, the only two periods where we have seen this type of occurrence was during the financial crisis in late November/early December 2008 (where we saw five straight daily occurrences) and on one day during the 2011 correction on 10/6/11.

There is, however, a silver lining.

According to the note, the market tends to recover quite nicely, even if it does take a month or more. Here's a chart from Bespoke looking back at what the S&P 500 did following the last two instances. 

September 2015 Eurozone Sentix index 13.6 vs 16.1 exp

September 2015 Eurozone Sentix index data report 7 September 2015

• Prior 18.4
• Current conditions 15.0 vs 15.3 prior
• Expectations 12.3 vs 21.5 prior

Blimey, the euro is actually trading data points right now. 1.1149 trades from 1.1161 as investor confidence slips more than expected

That's also a huge drop for expectations and that's coming mostly on China. Sentix note that respondents see the negative effects of China far eclipsing any domestic positivity in Europe

It shows how fragile firms in the Eurozone are feeling right now

Eurozone Sentix investor confidence index

GBPUSD making the most of the new week

Doing my best to give it the kiss of death, cable is looking to post its first daily gain in 10

A good start for the pound after what has been a dreadful run of losses the last 9 trading sessions

We've managed to get above Nov 2014 resistance again and we'll look to that to hold support now at 1.5200.

1.5250/60 will hold resistance on the upside with stronger at 1.5275/80

GBPUSD H4 chart

This has been a very sharp correction and the longer it went on the higher the chance grew of an equally sharp retracement. Whether that is going to happen is still in question but shorts in this one won't be getting worried until we get up towards the 38.2 & 50.0 fibs of this move at 1.5414 & 1.5491 respectively. That gives the pound a lot of work to do until then.

I'm 50/50 on whether this bounce means the end of the down move or just a drinks break. Of course, the BOE MPC meeting on Thursday could steady things until then. The recent services PMI drop could have any hawks remaining on the fence with only one voting for hikes at the last meeting

The August non farm payrolls competition winner was

Results of the ForexLive competition for the August US payrolls number

Nobody hit the 173k nail on the head this month and two people were 1k away either side

Skiddley popped up with 174k and Xin had 172k

Skiddley takes the prize as he was in first by time

Well done to you, please send me your full name and address to rlittlestone (at the website address) and We'll get the book out to you

Unlucky to Xin and everyone else and thank you for playing. If the Fed doesn't move at the Sep FOMC then the next NFP is going to be another biggie.

More good news and the Canadian dollar still can't hold a bid

70 pip drop in USD/CAD erased in minutes

A strong Canadian jobs report featuring a surge in full-time hiring still wasn't enough to sustain any kind of Canadian dollar gains. That was followed by a strong Ivey PMI that did next-to-nothing.

Broad US dollar strength and risk aversion are weighing along with commodity weakness but it seems as though almost any kind of combination of news isn't the right mix for CAD.

The BOC meets next week and the OIS market shows a 14% chance of a cut, rising to 35% in October. The main focus will be on a signal about Oct or later in the year.

I have a strong bias towards selling the Canadian dollar. I think GBP/CAD longs are particularly attractive at the moment. So far the Canadian economy has remained resilient but with China slowing and commodities on life support, it's only a matter of time until the loonie cracks again.

ECB's Nowotny says ABS purchases not as successful as hoped

Nowotny laments the lack of supply

When the ECB rolled out ABS purchases at this time last year, they knew that asset securitization in Europe was way behind the US but they believed that ECB buying would stimulate the market.

So far that doesn't seem to be the case.

Not a pretty day for European stocks

Closing changes for the main European bourses:

• German DAX -2.5%
• Italy MIB -3.2%
• French CAC -2.6%
• Spain IBEX -1.7%
• UK FTSE -2.3%

Shares were flattish for the week heading into Friday.

Cable falls to four-month low in ninth straight day of losses

Technical analysis: GBP/USD breaks below the June low

Cable just touched a fresh session low at 1.5165 to break the June low of 1.5171. The inability to hold a significant support level after 9 losses and ahead of the weekend is disconcerting.

I'm a cable bear but this is too much. I thought the pair had a great chance of holding that level and even though it's been fractured, I expect a bounce imminently now that European markets are closing.

EURUSD and GBPUSD swing more to the downside

EURUSD back below 100 day MA. GBPUSD tests June lows

The EURUSD is back below the 100 day MA after toying with the level. That level come s in at 1.11118.  Stay below....

The GBPUSD is falling to the lows from June 2015. The low price in June 2015 was 1.5169. The low from June 5 was 1.5189. This level (1.5189) is now close resistance.

We are heading to the London 4 pm fixing and the weekend. US traders have a Labor Day holiday.  Monday China comes back.  A risky weekend again.  Stocks remain lower but off the lows.  

S&P cut Glencore outlook - cuts metal price forecast, cites China uncertainties

Standard & Poor's has cut its outlook for Glencore to 'negative' from 'stable' after slashing its price forecasts for metals and amid uncertainties about China's economic outlook

• "Continued weakness and volatility in commodity prices resulting notably from a more uncertain and challenging outlook in China may put additional pressure on operations, credit measures, and free cash flow"
• Last week, S&P warned BHP Billiton's investment-grade credit ratings might come under pressure

August 2015 Ireland Investec services PMI 62.1 vs 63.4 prior

The August 2015 Ireland Investec services PMI data report 3 September 2015

Ireland gets the services PMI party started

• New orders 64.3 vs 66.2 prior
• Export orders 61.0 vs 58.1 prior
• Composite 59.7 vs 61.8 prior
• New orders 61.2 vs 63.8 prior

Softer numbers but still at a very strong expansion level

Irish services PMI

BOJ's Kiuchi says it's unlikely a financial crisis will come from China

BOJ board member Takahide Kiuchi via BBG & Reuters

• Global financial markets suddenly became unstable
• China and global economies haven't suddenly deteriorated
• Chinese economy has become a risk to Japanese economy
• Japan's economy won't become destabilised very much
• Says it's very questionable how effective further easing would be

That last comment has knocked nearly 15 pips off of USDJPY

• Effectiveness of easing has declined considerably
• Negative effect of weaker yen is big for Japanese regions
• Can't continue current BOJ policy forever
• Irresponsible to maintain QQE just to avoid market disruption

IMF: ECB asset purchase program should be extended if no improvement on inflation

From an International Monetary Fund note prepared for a meeting of G20 finance officials

• Meeting is Friday and Saturday in Turkey

Downside risks to the global economy have risen

• A combination of threats including slower growth in China and rising market volatility could severely cut the outlook
• "Risks are tilted to the downside, and a simultaneous realization of some of these risks would imply a much weaker outlook,"

Said China should keep up reforms to liberalize its economy, despite the market gyrations

• "The recent sharp equity market corrections should not discourage the authorities from continuing with reforms to give market mechanisms a more decisive role in the economy, eliminate distortions, and strengthen institutions"

Accommodative monetary policy in advanced economies was "essential"

• Stressed the case for structural reforms to boost potential output and productivity
• The Bank of Japan should stand ready for further easing
• European Central Bank should extend its asset-buying program unless inflation, which is showing signs of stabilization, picks up sufficiently

ForexLive Asia FX news wrap: China markets closed today, Asia takes a breather

Forex news for Asia trading Thursday 3 September 2015

Japan

• Japan Services PMI 53.7 (prior 51.2) and Composite PMI 52.9 (prior 51.5)
• BOJ's Kiuchi: Chance of Japan's inflation hitting 2 pct by fiscal 2017/18 is low
• Japan data - International Transactions in Securities data

Australia and New Zealand

• Australian press: AUD may fall below US60¢ in 'benign collapse'
• Australia July Trade Balance: -2460 m (vs -3160m expected)
• Australia Retail Sales for July: -0.1% m/m (vs. expected +0.4%)
• An alternative take on the Australian economy ... "Much better than it looks"
• Australia - August Services PMI: 55.6 (prior 54.1)
• NZ data - Q2 'Value of All Buildings': +1.6% q/q (expected +0.5%, prior +1.5%)
• Australia press: 'Australian dollar forecast to hit US60 cents'
• Australia press: Q2 GDP data - "The key take-out is just how perilous things are now"
• NZD traders - Fonterra sees demand pick up when inventories wane

• Chinese President Xi announces 300,000 headcount cut to military
• IMF: ECB asset purchase program should be extended if no improvement on inflation
• Asia market holidays - China and Hong Kong both closed today
• Brazil central bank leaves benchmark interest rate unchanged
• Earlier - US Treasury's Lew says China will be held accountable on currency
• JP Morgan economist on Rosengren speech - September hike still likely
• Foreign exchange trader warned over anti-money laundering processes
• Trade ideas thread for Thursday 3 September 2015
• Goldman Sachs are bullish on China stocks ... with a caveat

China and Hong Kong were both closed for a holiday today; China remains closed tomorrow and will reopen on Monday.

With no prospect for another thrashing on Chinese share markets today, trading was more subdued in the region than it has been for a while. Regional stocks benefited from the reduced fear factor and the better performance from Wall Street on Wednesday. Japan's Nikkei, for example, closed for lunch up around 1.3%. On the other hand, the Australian index fell.

There was good FX movement.

USD/JPY kicked off in the early Tokyo morning, munching through the offers ahead of and at 120.50 that had provided a lid for it. Follow-through, though, was limited, with a sideways chop following as above 120.60 it proved offered again. A dip towards 120.30 as AUD/JPY was hit following the Australian economic data releases (see more, below) was then bought. Comments from BOJ dissenter Kiuchi were not surprising, but his bluntness that Japan would not be hitting its inflation target any time soon did raise eyebrows. (see bullets, above).

USD/JPY is trading back at its session highs as I update now.

EUR/USD lost a little ground, but the range was not large. USD/CHF was barely changed, while cable too traded in a narrow range.

AUD fell hard on the simultaneous release of retail sales and trade balance data; retail sales was particularly disappointing, falling much more than expected in July. Exports (from the trade balance data) were slightly improved, which was a small positive from the day, though. NZD was overall better bid on the day, though it had some swings from early highs.

Oil calmed somewhat from its huge swings in Europe and the US, though it did lows a little ground on the session. Gold is a net a little lower also.

Still to come ... European Central Bank meeting and Draghi's follow up press conference:

• ECB preview: Draghi is going to give the market exactly what it wants
• ECB meeting & Draghi press conference coming up - 5 things to watch
• Citi on the ECB meeting today - What Will Draghi Say? How Will EUR/USD React?

European stocks open strongly ahead of the ECB

European stock market open 3 September 2015

• FTSE +1.1%
• Cac +1.0%
• Dax +1.1%
• Ibex +0.9%
• FTSE Mib +0.6%

European bonds

• Italy 1.98% flat
• Spain 2.13% flat
• Portugal 2.67% flat
• Germany 0.786% flat
• Greece 9.26% -12bp

GBPUSD runs higher after poor services data

Well there's something you don't see often ;-)

Maybe the conspiracy theorists are right and we were selling off on leaked bad numbers. They're certainly taking their money off the table now as cable runs up to 1.5285 after touching a 1.5239 low on the release

GBPUSD H4 chart

I'm claiming a win on picking the low on my post prior to the release ;-)

1.5290 should hold some resistance ahead of 1.5300 and through there we look at the highs from yesterday around 1.5320/25. 1.5250/55 is nearest support

August 2015 Spain Markit services PMI 59.6 vs 59.6 exp

Details of the August 2015 Spain Markit services PMI data report 3 September 2015

• Prior 59.7
• New orders 58.9 vs 60.1 prior
• Employment 54.4 vs 55.3 prior
• Composite 58.8 vs 57.9 exp. Prior 58.3
• New orders 57.2 vs 58.4 prior

Like Ireland, a tad softer but still well into expansion

Spain services PMI

Can the pound find some love from services PMI?

GBPUSD is walking around like a person that has dropped 50 quid then found a fiver

Poor old Betty is in a slump and it's going to take a lot to shake it off

The big UK services report is up in around an hour and it could be the data point to give the pound a pick-me-up

We're looking for a slight pick up to 57.6 from 57.4 in July. Since the run up through 2013 the sector has mostly gone sideways but with a slight downward slant

UK services PMI

Given the general feeling around markets right now it's going to take a bumper number to send the pound a good deal higher. I've a feeling that even if we do get a good beat any gains might not last. That in itself might provide a good trading opportunity in fading any rally

A miss is just going to add more weight onto sterling's shoulders and will probably help guide it down towards 1.5200

As usual look for the size of variation. A 1-2 point difference either way probably won't bring much of a reaction 2-3 points and we'll a bigger move. 3+ could set off some fireworks

There's still much to be enthusiastic about the UK economy but as I've mentioned on more than a few occasions before, our domestic strength will only get us so far. Getting external help is where we hit the brick wall and given the malaise over global growth, we're unlikely to get that help anytime soon

August 2015 Italian Markit ADACI services PMI 54.6 vs 53.0 exp

August 2015 Italian Markit ADACI services PMI data report 3 September 2015

• Prior 52.0
• New orders 53.0 vs 53.7 prior
• Composite 55.0 vs 53.1 exp. Prior 53.5
• New orders 53.8 vs 54.6 prior

Orders softer but the index is up overall. Italy is starting to see some pick up in activity in it's economy

August 2015 French Markit services PMI 50.6 vs 51.8 exp

Details of the August 2015 French Markit services PMI data report 3 September 2015

• Flash 51.8. July 52.0
• New orders 50.5 vs 52.0 prior
• Composite 50.2 vs 51.3 prior
• New orders 49.8 vs 51.3 prior

France lets the team down again

August 2015 German Markit BME services PMI final 54.9 vs 53.6 exp

Highlights of the August 2015 German Markit services PMI data report 3 September 2015

• Flash 53.6. July 53.8
• New biz 53.0 vs 51.9 prior
• Composite final 55.0 vs 54.0 exp. Flash 54.0. July 53.8
• New biz 53.5 vs 51.8 prior

Good jump in the headline and new orders for the Germans

August 2015 Eurozone Markit services PMI final 54.4 vs 54.3 exp

August 2015 Eurozone Markit services PMI data report 3 September 2015

• Flash 54.3. July 54.0
• Employment 52.3 vs 51.7 prior
• New orders 53.4 vs 53.8 prior
• Composite final 54.3 vs 54.1 exp. Flash 54.1. July 53.9. Highest since May 2011
• Output prices 50.1 vs 49.8 prior
• New orders 53.2 vs 53.3 prior

Every tick counts and Europe is adding them up. There's certainly signs that slowly the European economy is finding its feet once again. There's still a couple of patients on the sick bed though ;-)

Now over to the UK to show everyone how it's done.....hopefully ;-)

Eurozone services PMI

1.5230 important support for GBPUSD over services report

A bad PMI could see the pound make its way through 1.5200 and more

There's technical support from the broken Nov 2014 resistance line at 1.5230 and that might be all that stands in the way of a bigger move towards the May lows around 1.5170

GBPUSD daily chart

As I said in the quick preview, a minor miss may not move the price that much but it will keep the current bearish pressure on

August 2015 UK Markit services PMI 55.6 vs 57.6 exp

Highlights of the August 2015 UK Markit services PMI data report 3 September 2015

• Prior 57.4
• New orders 56.2 vs 58.6 prior. Lowest since Apr 2013
• Composite 55.1 vs 56.6 prior
• New orders 55.8 vs 57.6 prior

That's not good, not good at all. Services to the lowest since May 2013

Markit says the numbers equate to Q3 GDP of 0.5% q/q. Q2 was 0.7%

GBPUSD slides to 1.5239 initially but has bounced back to 1.5258 as the dollar shows some further weakness

At the moment the Fed is the front runner on rate rises by a fair few furlongs and that's significantly weighing on the pound as well

UK services PMI

July 2015 Eurozone retail sales 0.4% vs 0.6% exp m/m

Details of July 2015 Eurozone retail sales data report 3 September 2015

• Prior -0.6%. Revised to -0.2%
• 2.7% vs 2.0% exp y/y. Prior 1.2%. Revised to 1.7%
• EU 28 states +0.3% vs -0.1% prior m/m
• 3.3% vs 2.4% prior y/y

Missed the target but confirmed the rise from June. Revisions add some extra positivity to the report too. EURUSD has fallen asleep at 1.1237

Eurozone retail sales y/y

Oil prices in flux on US inventory uncertainty

WTI crude flat in choppy trade

The consensus estimate for the EIA data due out at the bottom of the hour is listed at +444K but market expectations are much higher after the API reported a 7600K  barrel increase in its latest report. The headlines from that report sent crude lower by as much as $1.20 to $43.87 but those losses (and more) were recovered in early US trading, rising to as high as $46.35.

WTI is trading at $45.35 now. That's flat on the session and almost exactly where crude prices were ahead of the API data.

In terms of expectations, I suspect the market is now looking for something in the neighbourhood of a 4500K barrel increase in weekly inventories.

Either way, the release of the report is likely to kick-start the market once again. The session highs and lows are the important resistance/support levels to watch but I'd expect crude to be more vulnerable to the downside.

Obama finds enough support to uphold Iran sanctions deal

Senator Barbara Mikulski supports Iran deal

The Democrat from Maryland is the 34th Senator to support the deal. That gives him enough support that Congress can't override the Presidential veto.

Congress has until Sept 17 to pass a resolution to block the deal but if the votes hold up, it will fail and the sanctions will be lifted.

That was likely priced in already but it ensures that Iranian oil will make it back to market. The next question is, how much oil can Iran produce?

API crude oil inventories: up 7.6 mln barrels

American Petroleum Institute (API) crude oil inventories for the week to August 28

• U.S. crude oil stocks rise 7.6 mln bbls ... Much, much higher than the 'expected' for the EIA data tomorrow (see that, below)
• Crude stocks at Cushing fell by 318K barrels

Oil price falling on the build in stockpiles

-

Note - This data is out earlier to API subscribers (at 4.30pm ET) and released publicly at 4.35pm ET.

The API data is closely watched as a guide to the U.S. Energy Information 
Administration (EIA) data due tomorrow morning (US time).

The consensus estimate for tomorrow's EIA report is currently for an inventory build of 444K barrels.