Oil prices in flux on US inventory uncertainty

WTI crude flat in choppy trade

The consensus estimate for the EIA data due out at the bottom of the hour is listed at +444K but market expectations are much higher after the API reported a 7600K  barrel increase in its latest report. The headlines from that report sent crude lower by as much as $1.20 to $43.87 but those losses (and more) were recovered in early US trading, rising to as high as $46.35.

WTI is trading at $45.35 now. That's flat on the session and almost exactly where crude prices were ahead of the API data.

In terms of expectations, I suspect the market is now looking for something in the neighbourhood of a 4500K barrel increase in weekly inventories.

Either way, the release of the report is likely to kick-start the market once again. The session highs and lows are the important resistance/support levels to watch but I'd expect crude to be more vulnerable to the downside.