Wednesday, 2 September 2015

More on Morgan Stanley's "full house" buy alert on international stock markets

Morgan Stanley has issued a "full house" buy alert on international stock markets

  • First time since early 2009
  • MS says all five of its market-timing signals are now flashing a buy signal
  • Says selling-fever is close to capitulation
  • MS add this is a rare event
  • Should lead to a V-shaped recovery
  • Looking for a 23% gain over the next 12 months
Graham Secker, head European equity strategist:
  • Recent sell off driven by emotion
  • Not by the underlying outlook for the world economy
"Equities remain very cheap relative to government bonds and there remains a lot of liquidity around that is looking for a home"
Secker does point out, though (bolding mine):
"Our indicator is not the Holy Grail of investing. We think that on the balance of probabilities, the risk-reward ratio looks pretty good right now, but it is not a very good week-to-week timing signal"        
Gonna be 'more to come' on this

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