Tuesday, 1 September 2015

GDP responses ... "AUD to fall into low 60s"

I'll gather more analyst responses to the Australian GDP data

But, this one caught my eye immediately. From Dr. Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy & Chief Economist at AMP Capital:
  • Not the feared negative but still very weak
  • Nominal GDP just +1.6% y/y as terms of trade fell another 3.4% q/q (-10.6% y/y) = ongoing national income recession
  • 0.2% growth is well below potential (at around 2.75%)
  • Means rising spare capacity
  • Expect the RBA to ease again & $A to fall into low $US0.60s   
  • Household savings rate still high at 8.8%, providing a decent buffer for growth in consumer spending

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