Bitcoin Headed for Third Daily Loss

Bitcoin is headed for its third consecutive daily loss. Today we opened at $223.11 on BTC-E, spiked to a high of $228.29 in the first hour before falling to a daily low of $219.85 later on. We are currently quoted at $221.03, above the lows but $2 dollars (0.94 percent) below the daily open. If prices continued to trade near the lows, this would be the third straight loss for bitcoin. To be fair, the losses are small at $2 dollars, $5 dollars and again $2 dollars today. But little by little it adds up and more importantly, we’re still moving in the direction of the downward trend.

In yesterday’s session we saw bitcoin futures, specifically the September 25th contract, crash to new lows. While the losses were quickly reversed, it shows that the path of least resistance is to the downside. Today OKCoin futures are having a calmer session, trading in a relatively smaller range of $14.91. Yesterday the September 25th contract had a wild session of $28.30 dollars. Futures are still (mostly) trading at a premium to spot prices but this premium has decreased substantially.

Bitcoins on the main OKCoin exchange are currently selling for $224.50 dollars each, while the nearer August 28th contract is quoting $225.85. The September 25th contract is at $227.20 right now, not even $3 dollars above spot. Just four days ago this premium was at $8 dollars. Yesterday, albeit briefly, we saw all three current futures contracts trade at a discount to spot prices.

Despite the slower progress in the last few days, the bitcoin downtrend is still ongoing. To end it, the bulls will need to push BTC/USD back above the $265 handle on BTC-E ($268 for OKCoin). Bit lower we find a strong resistance level at $250. This former resistance was the starting point for the latest BTC rally. It then turned to support and held up prices for nine days. It should now again act as resistance on the way up. On the lower end, the first important support is at the double bottom formation, $210 (BTC-E) and $214 (OKCoin). A decisive break below this level should lead to more losses.

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